🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.