Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
