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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd